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Gold Range Tightens Before Fed — Breakout Pressure Builds

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Aayush Jindal

Key Highlights

  • Gold started a fresh decline from $5,240 and traded below $5,120.
  • A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance at $5,075 on the 4-hour chart.
  • WTI Crude Oil surged toward $102 before there was a pullback.
  • Bitcoin rallied toward $76,000 before it faced some substantial resistance.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Gold remained well bid above $4,970 against the US Dollar. The price climbed above $5,150 and $5,200 before it started a fresh decline.

The 4-hour chart of XAU/USD indicates that the price trimmed gains from $5,238 and traded below $5,150. There was a close below the 100 Simple Moving Average (red, 4 hours) and the 200 Simple Moving Average (green, 4 hours).

The price traded as low as $4,970 and is currently consolidating losses. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at $5,075.

On the upside, immediate resistance is $5,075 and the trend line. The next major resistance sits near $5,100. A clear move above $5,100 could open the doors for more upside. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move toward $5,135 and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $5,238 swing high to the $4,970 low.

The main target for the bulls could be $5,165 and the 100 Simple Moving Average (red, 4 hours), above which the price could test $5,200. If there is another decline, Gold might find bids near the $5,000 level. The first major support sits at $4,970, below which the price might slide to $4,920.

The main support sits at $4,880. Any more losses might call for a test of $4,840 or even $4,820 in the coming days.

Looking at WTI Crude Oil, the price rallied over 10% amid the ongoing Iran war before the bears took a stand near the $102 level.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

  • US Producer Price Index for Feb 2026 (MoM) – Forecast +0.3%, versus +0.5% previous.
  • US Producer Price Index for Feb 2026 (YoY) – Forecast +2.9%, versus +2.9% previous.
  • BoE Interest Rate Decision - Forecast 3.75%, versus 3.75% previous.
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