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USD/JPY Circles Back To 159.00 With A Breakthrough In Sight

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Aayush Jindal

Key Highlights

  • USD/JPY started another increase toward the key resistance at 159.00.
  • It cleared a bearish trend line with resistance at 157.85 on the 4-hour chart.
  • Gold could struggle to extend gains above the $4,120 resistance.
  • Bitcoin might decline sharply if there is a weekly close below $79,200.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US Dollar formed a base above 157.00 against the Japanese Yen. USD/JPY started a fresh increase above the 157.50 and 157.80 resistance levels.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair traded above the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and is below the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). There was a clear move above the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 158.59 swing high to the 156.07 low.

If the pair extends gains, it could face resistance at 158.60. The first major resistance might still be 159.00. A close above 159.00 could start a steady increase. In the stated case, the pair might even surpass 160.00.

If there is a fresh pullback, the pair might find support near the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour) at 157.50. The first major support could be 157.20.

A close below 157.20 might accelerate the decline. In the stated case, the pair might drop to 156.50. The main support could be 156.00, below which the bears may aim for a test of 152.50 in the coming days.

Looking at Gold, there was a minor recovery wave, but the bears might remain active unless there is a close above $4,120.

Upcoming Key Economic Events:

  • Eurozone Gross Domestic Product for Q3 2026 (QoQ) (Prelim) - Forecast 0.2%, versus 0.6% previous.
  • Eurozone Gross Domestic Product for Q3 2026 (YoY) (Prelim) - Forecast 1.1%, versus 1.2% previous.
  • Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index for Oct 2026 – Forecast 56.1, versus 58.8 previous.
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